Logo
Print this page

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

India’s Geopolitical Strategy in Central Asia
(Translated)
Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 616 - 09/09/2026
By: Islam Abu Khalil – Uzbekistan

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Uzbekistan on August 29–30, 2026, should be viewed as an event transcending the scope of routine diplomatic visits; it represents a significant component of India’s foreign policy aimed at bolstering its economic, energy, and strategic standing within the Central Asian region.

Uzbekistan and India established diplomatic relations in 1992 and elevated them to a strategic partnership in 2011. On August 30, 2026, the relationship was further upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The two nations agreed to expand cooperation across trade, investment, energy, mining, critical minerals, defense, industrial manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, information technology, and education. Additionally, a 30-day visa-exemption scheme was approved for Uzbek nationals wishing to visit India. A target was also set to increase bilateral trade volume to $5 billion by 2030, alongside an agreement on a long-term mechanism for supplying uranium from Uzbekistan to India. Yet, the fundamental question remains: why is India devoting such significant attention to Uzbekistan and Central Asia at this particular juncture?

China: A Rival with Whom Disengagement Is Not an Option: For India, China is a primary geopolitical rival in Asia. Issues regarding the Himalayan border, the close ties between China and Pakistan, and China’s growing influence in Central Asia are sources of concern for India. Nevertheless, India prioritizes strategic autonomy over direct confrontation with China. While China expands its transport and trade networks across Eurasia through the Belt and Road Initiative, India is simultaneously working to develop its own trade routes and alternatives.

Geography poses the primary obstacle for India: it lacks a direct overland route to Central Asia, and transit through Pakistani territory remains restricted due to political disputes. Consequently, India attaches great importance to Iran’s Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This route offers a way to connect India with Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Russia via Iran. Thus, for India, Central Asia represents not merely a commercial market but an opportunity to establish a Eurasian corridor independent of Chinese or Pakistani influence.

Russia remains a key partner: Despite its growing alignment with the West, India maintains ties with Russia in the military-technical, energy, and nuclear sectors. However, Russia’s increasing reliance on China following the war in Ukraine is prompting India to reassess its strategy; it seeks to strengthen its independent position in Central Asia while preserving its relationship with Russia.

Why Uzbekistan specifically? Uzbekistan lies at the heart of the region, sharing borders with all other Central Asian states. It boasts a large market and abundant strategic mineral resources, alongside a track record of cultivating balanced relations with China, Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Europe.

Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov’s visit to India on August 3–4, 2026, marked a significant milestone in this process, involving discussions on cooperation in trade, investment, mining, rare earth elements, pharmaceuticals, and information technology. This was followed by a visit to Uzbekistan by Prime Minister Modi, aimed at elevating bilateral relations to a new level. Uranium is not merely an ordinary commodity; it is a material linked to energy, nuclear technology, and strategic security. Thus, the issue goes beyond the mere quantity of uranium sold; it concerns the terms of the sale, where value is added, and whether Uzbekistan will acquire technology or remain merely a source of raw materials.

This is not a new issue; according to information from the Indian Parliament, a long-term contract was concluded with Uzbekistan in 2019 to supply 1,100 tons of natural uranium concentrate between 2022 and 2026. India possesses uranium enrichment capabilities and a nuclear weapons program, and some of its strategic nuclear facilities are not subject to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. Consequently, transparency regarding the downstream nuclear supply chain for Uzbek uranium—as well as its intended use and export conditions—is of strategic importance.

The current phase requires resources and transport from China; markets and regional influence from Russia; corridors and logistical links from Turkey and Azerbaijan; and resources and new routes from Europe; while India seeks resources, markets, and access to Central Asia. It should also be noted that cooperation between these two countries faces no declared US opposition; indeed, certain aspects of it may align with US policy aimed at balancing China's influence in Central Asia.

Uzbek officials show great respect for the prime minister of an occupying state and a killer of Muslims. Had they possessed even an iota of shame before their Lord and their Muslim Ummah, they would have punished the representatives of these criminal regimes rather than hosting and honoring them! The honor of leading and saving the Islamic Ummah is not attained by just anyone; rather, it requires sincere faith and righteous deeds that elevate one’s standing in the sight of Allah—Mighty and Majestic is He. Indeed, the presence of such a leader in international politics today has become a necessity as vital as water and air.

Allah (swt) says,

[يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا لَا تَتَّخِذُوا عَدُوِّي وَعَدُوَّكُمْ أَوْلِيَاءَ تُلْقُونَ إِلَيْهِم بِالْمَوَدَّةِ وَقَدْ كَفَرُوا بِمَا جَاءَكُم مِّنَ الْحَقِّ يُخْرِجُونَ الرَّسُولَ وَإِيَّاكُمْ أَن تُؤْمِنُوا بِاللَّهِ رَبِّكُمْ إِن كُنتُمْ خَرَجْتُمْ جِهَاداً فِي سَبِيلِي وَابْتِغَاءَ مَرْضَاتِي تُسِرُّونَ إِلَيْهِم بِالْمَوَدَّةِ وَأَنَا أَعْلَمُ بِمَا أَخْفَيْتُمْ وَمَا أَعْلَنتُمْ وَمَن يَفْعَلْهُ مِنكُمْ فَقَدْ ضَلَّ سَوَاءَ السَّبِيلِ]

“O you who have believed, do not take My enemies and your enemies as allies, extending to them affection while they have disbelieved in what came to you of the truth, having driven out the Messenger and yourselves [only] because you believe in Allah, your Lord. If you have come out for jihad in My cause and seeking My pleasure, do not confide affection to them, while I am Most Knowing of what you have concealed and what you have declared. And whoever does that among you has certainly strayed from the right path.” [TMQ Surah Al-Mumtahinah: 1].

Template Design © Joomla Templates | GavickPro. All rights reserved.